By Logan Gilland, CFP®
What Happened: Back and Forth in Iran Continues
What Does It Mean?
Markets were on a rollercoaster this week as Iran headlines kept flipping. Wednesday brought a strong rally on signals that a resolution might be within reach. By Thursday, those gains reversed after press reports of an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz between U.S. and Iranian forces.
Despite the volatility, Brent crude oil fell from $114 a barrel to around $100 per barrel over the period (5/4/2026 – 5/8/2026), a meaningful drop that could offer some relief in the elevated oil prices.
Why Do We Care?
My wife and I hiked Hocking Hills in Ohio last weekend. Now, my version of a hike is 45 minutes, a waterfall, and a reasonable excuse to turn around. Her version is a 5-mile trek that somehow manages to be uphill in both directions.
This conflict with Iran has felt exactly like that type of hike. Every time it seems like we’re cresting the final hill, another long stretch appears around the bend. In our view, while markets have largely started looking past the situation, Iran is still managing to inject volatility into an already dramatic stretch for markets. I do believe we’re close to some form of resolution. Gas prices are likely to lag behind any diplomatic progress though and that could pressure the consumer. So far earnings reports like the ones from Disney and Uber this week have shown strong spending, but the consumer can only be stretched so far. My concern is that more is going on a credit card rather than adjustments to the budget so far.
What Happened: Jobs Data Comes in Better than Expected
What Does It Mean?
The tech sector has racked up 92,000 layoffs so far in 2026, including roughly 20,000 from Meta and Microsoft alone. The concern growing in markets is that AI isn’t just changing how we work, it’s eliminating major chunks of jobs and that job loss could just be getting started.
Friday’s jobs report pushed back on that narrative. The economy added 115,000 new jobs nearly doubling expectations while unemployment held steady. Healthcare continued to drive the bulk of the gains, as it has for several consecutive reports. Markets responded well, with the S&P 500 closing out the week at all-time highs.
Why Do We Care?
Whenever I’m breaking down economic data with the team, I always ask the same question: “What’s the first thing we think about when we hear the words jobs or inflation?” The answer, every time, without hesitation: the Fed.
The Fed has two jobs: keep unemployment low and keep inflation under control. That dual mandate means good economic news doesn’t always translate to good market news. Strong jobs data typically gives the Fed less reason to cut rates, which historically has given investors pause. This week was different. Markets didn’t flinch at the strong numbers, and I think that’s because a Fed hold has already been priced in. What could be a wildcard is inflation data due next week. Steady rates from the FED are expected, a rate hike is not. We’ll keep an eye on both the inflation numbers and the ongoing earnings reports as the picture continues to come into focus.
Talk again soon.